Stanford (1-2, 1-0 ACC) used explosive plays and Boston College (1-2, 0-1 ACC) miscues to erupt for a 30-20 home victory.
The win probability chart of this game was particularly spiky. There were two sequences in which Stanford won this game. And we’re here to walk you through both of them.
2nd Quarter
2:41-1:29 (72 seconds)
Win Probability: 8.8% to 53.8% (+45.0%)
After Stanford had jumped to an early 6-0 lead on the back of two Emmet Kenney kicks, Boston College’s offense woke up to the tune of 17 unanswered.
The Eagles and quarterback Dylan Lonergan were once again in the red zone as the second quarter waned. They appeared poised to take a three score lead into the locker room, and their ESPN win probability ticked as high as 91.2%.
But in 72 seconds, we had a whole new game.
A Boston College fumble found its way into the mitts of big Clay Patterson, the graduate student’s second recovery of the young season.
Stanford started the drive at their own 24 yard line with two short connections between Ben Gulbranson and Chase Farrell. Then on third down, they took the top off the defense with a 69-yard catch and run by tight end Sam Roush.
“I knew once [Roush] got going, nobody’s going to catch that guy,” said interim head coach Frank Reich. “He’s fast. Nobody is going to bring him down. I was really happy for him.”
Boston College got the ball back and went into a 2 minute drill to try to bite off another score before the half. But on the second play of their new drive, Lonergan’s ill-advised pass went straight to CB Collin Wright, who raced 19 yards for the first pick-six of his excellent career.
“We take pride in getting turnovers,” said Collin Wright. “It’s a big emphasis everyday in practice. Since spring ball, since camp, we want three turnovers a practice and three turnovers a game, so we accomplished that as a defense.”
The clock now read 1:29, and Stanford had turned a 17-6 deficit into a 20-17 lead. Likewise, they went from an 8.8% win probability into a 53.8% chance.
3rd Quarter
3:20-1:35 (105 seconds)
Win Probability: 26.9% to 75.3% (+48.4%)
With 3:20 to go in the third, the game was all tied at 20. Boston College faced second and goal at the 4 yard line, and their win probability was back up to 73.1%.
A second down pass fell incomplete. On third down, Lonergan found his receiver on the right sideline, but Scotty Edwards made a touchdown-saving tackle, forcing him out at the 1. That set the stage for fourth and goal.
Thousands of pounds of humanity were crowded around the ball as it was snapped. BC running back Turbo Richard attempted to maneuver through this mass of men, only to have the ball pop high into the air and into the end zone, where Stanford’s Jay Green pounced on it for a touchback. This result was better than a traditional goal line stand, in that Stanford now got the ball on its own 20 yard line.
Stanford turned to sophomore running back Micah Ford, which is always a good idea. On the first play from scrimmage, Micah took the handoff and ran over left guard, breaking a couple of tackles and nearly outrunning everyone before being dragged down at the 5 yard line. One play later he found paydirt.
The clock read 1:35 in the third, and all the momentum belonged to the Cardinal. They now held a 75.3% chance to win the game.
There were plenty of other key plays in this game, but to have two short segments with 45.0% and 48.4% swings in win probability before the fourth quarter is exceedingly rare.
A Zach Johnson sack and another 31 yard rumble for Micah Ford set up the final score of the day, a 26 yard chip shot for Emmet Kenney, who was perfect on the day.
Stanford ultimately ran out the final 7+ minutes of the game on the ground, including an opportune offsides penalty to convert a third down. Somewhere, David Shaw is smiling.
Micah Ford finished with 17 carries for 157 yards on the night, a career high and the most yards on the ground by a Stanford player since Bryce Love in 2017. His 75 yard run was the longest since EJ Smith’s 87 yarder in 2022.
Ben Gulbranson had a bounce-back game, showcasing how he went 7-1 as a starter for Oregon State in 2022. The sixth year QB finished 13-22 for 186 yards and a TD, despite being under significant pressure. He was poised, accurate, and unlike his BC counterpart, he was mistake-free.
The Stanford defense held Boston College scoreless in the second half and forced 3 turnovers that led to 21 Cardinal points.
Coach Frank Reich picked up his first career NCAA victory, and spoke about what it meant to him:
“When you love football and you love the guys you're playing alongside and you love to go to practice and do the whole deal, it makes it a special environment, and I think that's what we have.”